Pub pokies against online pokies: what the 4–5 point RTP gap costs per NZ$1,000

The numbers, and where they come from

Class 4 machines in New Zealand pubs and clubs operate under a Department of Internal Affairs minimum return of 78 %. That is a floor, not a typical figure: in practice these machines run at roughly 88–92 %. Online pokies from the large studios sit at 94–97 %, and the figure for a specific title is generally published in the game's own information panel.

Take the midpoints: about 90 % in a venue against about 95.5 % online. That is 5.5 percentage points of expected loss, and percentage points are easy to nod at and hard to feel. So convert them.

What it costs on NZ$1,000 of turnover

Turnover is not what you brought. It is the total of every spin, including spins funded by winnings, which is how NZ$100 in a machine becomes NZ$1,000 of turnover over an evening.

• At 90 % return, NZ$1,000 of turnover has an expected cost of NZ$100.
• At 95.5 % return, the same turnover has an expected cost of NZ$45.
• The difference is NZ$55 — within the NZ$40–60 range the return gap implies.

Over a year of the same modest habit — say NZ$1,000 of turnover a fortnight — that gap is roughly NZ$1,400. Nothing about this makes online play profitable. Expected return below 100 % means an expected loss, always. It makes the venue machine reliably the more expensive way to play the same game, by a margin large enough to notice.

What the venue machine buys with the difference

This is the part that usually goes missing. Class 4 gambling in New Zealand is a community-funding mechanism by design: a substantial share of the proceeds from pub and club machines is returned through grants to sport, rescue services and community organisations. The wider margin is not purely operator profit — some of it is the funding model working as Parliament intended.

An offshore online casino returns nothing to a New Zealand community. Licensed operators will, from 2027, pay a problem-gambling levy of 3.5 % of profit and online gambling duty rising to 16 % on 1 January 2027, which is a different channel and a smaller one. So the honest framing is: the pub machine is a worse deal for you and a better deal for the netball club down the road, and you can hold both facts at once.

Three differences that matter more than the percentage

• Speed. Expected loss is a rate per spin, and an online pokie spins several times faster than a venue machine, with no cabinet, no queue and no one waiting behind you. A better return at triple the spin rate is a larger hourly loss. This is the single most important sentence on the page.
• Stake size. Venue machines have regulated maximum bets. Online, the ceiling is far higher and the slider is right there.
• Breaks. A venue closes, and the walk to it is friction. A phone does neither, which is why deposit limits and time reminders matter more online than they ever did in a pub.

How to read a return figure without being misled

Four cautions, each of which has bitten someone:

1. A published RTP is a long-run average across millions of spins. It says nothing about your session, and no number of spins you will personally play is enough for it to assert itself.
2. Some titles ship in several RTP versions. The same slot can be configured at 96 % or at 92 % depending on what the operator licensed. Check the figure inside the game's information panel at the casino you are actually playing at, not in a review of the game.
3. Volatility is a separate axis. Two games at 96 % feel nothing alike if one pays small and often and the other pays rarely and large. Return tells you the expected cost; volatility tells you the spread around it.
4. Jackpot contributions sit inside the figure. On a progressive, part of the stated return is the jackpot you almost certainly will not win, so the return you experience is lower than the headline unless you are the one who hits it.